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Creating Our Own Ratings


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I wanted to try to tackle creating a way to derive ratings that we could use so we didn't have to wait on a different league to do our rerates. I was going to attempt to tackle this by myself but thought a collaborative approach would work better than just creating it myself, then defending it / adding feedback at a later date.

My sources are the FHLSim manual, and thecphl’s ratings guide. Advanced statistics leveraged from http://moneypuck.com/stats.htm and https://www.naturalstattrick.com/. Justifications and thought processes are mine. I define the ratings as follows: 
< 50: Very Poor
50-59: Poor
60-69: Below Average
70-75: Average
76-79: Above Average
80-89: Great
>89: Exceptional

Edited by cbarnett
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Intensity

FHLSim Manual Description
This is the player's ability to play at his peak level every shift on the ice.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
BASE 60 – PLUS 1 FOR EVERY 10 HITS, PRO-RATED
(60 + [{HITS/GP * 82} / 10])

Proposed Rating for Skaters
BASE 50 + ROUND(Share Of Possible Icetime in Regular Season + (Share of Possible Icetime in Playoffs / 10) )

Thought Process
Using hits as a measure to determine a player’s ability to play at a consistent level for the whole game doesn’t make sense to me. It makes more sense to me to measure this by how much a team choses to play a player.

 I have done testing on this over the course of the last couple of seasons, especially on my team in the NSHL. In the first season I took over ownership I placed dead last. I took a look at statistics history in the D/NSHL and noticed that high intensity rating players did not tend to generate more hits than an average player and that hits seemed to be more of a composite stat between Strength, Defense, and low Discipline. In the second season I made upgrades that preferentially targeted players that were average to above average with great to exceptional Intensity ratings. I placed second. In my third season, both Brian and Kevin noticed what I did and made similar improvements to their teams. Kevin returned to the playoffs after missing the season before and Brian won our division by a mile.

To give an example of what this means using players, Connor McDavid is widely considered to be the most consistent centerman in the NHL. His intensity rating is 65 which means the simmer thinks he is a below average performer from shift to shift. By comparison, the most consistent player in the D/NFHL would be Ryan Reaves at intensity rating 96. This does not make sense. Under my proposed rating Connor McDavid’s intensity would be 91 whereas Ryan Reaves would be at intensity rating 68.

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
BASED ON TOTALS OF SAVE %, GAA CHARTS PLUS WINS AND SHUTOUTS…. DIVIDED BY FOUR.  THEN ADJUSTED FOR THE GOALTENDERS STYLE AND TRAITS.

Edited by cbarnett
formatting + goalie CPHL stuff
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Speed

FHLSim Manual Description
This is the player's skating speed, which is both acceleration and raw speed.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
SUBJECTIVE (YOUNG UNPROVEN PLAYERS BASE 60)

Proposed Rating for Skaters
BELL CURVE 50-99 (Rush Attempts in Regular Season + Rush Attempts in Playoffs) + (Takeaways in Regular Season + Takeaways in Playoffs)

Thought Process
The CPHL gives no indication how they judge speed. I prefer trying to make things deterministic where I can. 

The reason for using a bell curve is to make all of the players' statistics relative to each other while binding them to the 50-99 scale. This should hopefully balance out the effect a nonstandard length season has.

In offensive situations, rush attempts are the only publicly tracked statistic I could think of to contribute to speed. In a normal season with 82 games (using 2018/19), the top 5 regular season leaders were Brad Marchand (24), Brendan Gallagher (24), Kasperi Kapanen (22), Evander Kane (20, and David Pastrnak (18).

A takeaway is a forced action taken by a defensive player to regain possession of the puck for his team. For a turnover to be called a takeaway, it must be done by a defensive player and pressure must be applied to the opposing team. I feel like this is a good measure of speed in a defensive situation as the player pressuring must be fast enough to get to and pressure the puck away. The top five regular season leaders for 18/19 were Mark Stone (122), Aleksander Barkov (100), Connor McDavid (99), Ryan O’Reilly (94), and Brent Burns (88).

This is by no means perfect but the NHL is implementing chip tracking in all arenas which means that more advanced statistics on Speed will be available soon and we can rework this when that new data is available.
 

Goaltenders
CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
BASED ON TOTALS OF SAVE %, GAA CHARTS PLUS WINS AND SHUTOUTS…. DIVIDED BY FOUR.  THEN ADJUSTED FOR THE GOALTENDERS STYLE AND TRAITS.

Edited by cbarnett
formatting
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Strength

FHLSim Manual Description
This rating affects the player's ability to work in the corners, in front of the net, etc.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
BASE 70 = 6’0 180 LBS. 
PLUS 1 FOR EACH INCH OVER 6’0 & MINUS 1 FOR EACH INCH UNDER
PLUS 1 FOR EACH 5 LBS. OVER 180 & MINUS 1 FOR EACH 5 LBS. UNDER 180

Proposed Rating for Skaters
No change, this seems fine to me.

Thought Process
This reflects players’ ability to get stronger through working out. It is often the goal of the shorter (by NHL standards) players to add muscle mass onto their frame in order to not be displaced from the puck as easily.

Goaltenders

 

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
BASE 70 = 6’0 180 LBS. 
PLUS 1 FOR EACH INCH OVER 6’0 & MINUS 1 FOR EACH INCH UNDER
PLUS 1 FOR EACH 5 LBS. OVER 180 & MINUS 1 FOR EACH 5 LBS. UNDER 180

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders
No change, this seems fine to me.

Thought Process
This reflects players’ ability to get stronger through working out. It is often the goal of the shorter (by NHL standards) players to add muscle mass onto their frame in order to not be displaced from the puck as easily.

Edited by cbarnett
added goalie stuff, formatting
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Endurance

FHLSim Manual Description
The endurance rating allows players to take more and longer shifts during the game.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
ALL PLAYERS BASE 65, PLUS AVERAGE MINUTES PLAYED PER GAME FOR A TOTAL.  Eg.  65 PLUS 18 MINUTES PER GAME = 83

Proposed Rating for Skaters

Thought Process

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
BASE 99, MODIFIED DOWN FOR REDUCED ACTION

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
added goalie stuff, formatting
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Durability

FHLSim Manual Description
The durability rating is directly proportional to how often a player will come out of a game unhurt.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
82 GAMES PLAYED = 99, MINUS 1 FOR EACH GAME MISSED (MIN. 25)

Proposed Rating for Skaters

Thought Process

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
99 BASE MINUS 1 FOR EACH GAME UNDER 50

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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Discipline

FHLSim Manual Description
A player with a low discipline rating takes more penalties and is more likely to fight when combined with Intensity.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
BASE 99 MINUS 1 FOR EACH 5 PENALTY MINUTES (MINIMUM 25)

Proposed Rating for Skaters

Thought Process
 

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
BASE 99 MINUS 1 FOR EACH 5 PENALTY MINUTES (MINIMUM 25)

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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Posted (edited)

Skating

FHLSim Manual Description
This rating affects the player's ability to balance and move in all four directions.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
SUBJECTIVE (YOUNG PLAYERS BASE 60)

Proposed Rating for Skaters
 

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders

BASED ON TOTALS OF SAVE %, GAA CHARTS PLUS WINS AND SHUTOUTS…. DIVIDED BY FOUR.  THEN ADJUSTED FOR THE GOALTENDERS STYLE AND TRAITS.

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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Passing

FHLSim Manual Description
The passing rating represents how good the player is at moving the puck or setting players up in scoring position.
Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
BASE 40 PLUS 1 FOR EACH ASSIST UP TO A TOTAL “90” (50 ASSISTS)
PLUS 1 FOR EACH 5 ASSISTS AFTER 50, (MAXIMUM 99)

Proposed Rating for Skaters
 

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
SUBJECTIVE BASED ON GOALIES PASSING SKILLS.

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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Puck Control

FHLSim Manual Description
A high puck control rating means the player is more likely to shoot and less likely to give the puck away.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
PA AND SC ADDED, AND DIVIDED BY 2 PLUS ONE FOR EACH PERCENT OVER 50 ON FACEOFFS.  EG 53% =  3 MORE ON PC.

Proposed Rating for Skaters
 

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders

BASED ON TOTALS OF SAVE %, GAA CHARTS PLUS WINS AND SHUTOUTS…. DIVIDED BY FOUR.  THEN ADJUSTED FOR THE GOALTENDERS STYLE AND TRAITS.

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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Posted (edited)

Defense

FHLSim Manual Description
A high defensive rating affects a players' ability to break up passes, rushes and cover offensive players.
Skaters
CPHL Rating
SUBJECTIVE, PLUS MINUS AND OTHER MEASURES ARE TEAM BASED

Proposed Rating

Edited by cbarnett
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Scoring

FHLSim Manual Description
This is the players' ability to put the puck in the net and also to create scoring opportunities without the puck.
Skaters
CPHL Rating
BASE 50 FOR FORWARDS, PLUS 1 PER GOAL FOR FORWARDS FOR THE FIRST 40 GOALS.  PLUS 1 FOR EACH 3 GOALS OVER 40.
BASE 50 FOR DEFENCE, PLUS 2 FOR EVERY GOAL FOR FIRST 20 GOALS.  PLUS 1 FOR EVERY GOAL AFTER 20.

Proposed Rating

Edited by cbarnett
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Experience

FHLSim Manual Description
Experienced players tend to be more consistent from one game to the next, and tend to be more effective in close games.

Skaters

CPHL Rating for Skaters
BASE 50 PLUS 1 FOR EVERY 30 GAMES PLAYED, PLUS 1 FOR EVERY 8 PLAYOFF GAMES. (MAXIMUM 99)

Proposed Rating for Skaters
 

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders

BASE 50 PLUS 1 FOR EVERY 30 GAMES PLAYED, PLUS 1 FOR EVERY 8 PLAYOFF GAMES. (MAXIMUM 99)

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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Posted (edited)

Leadership

FHLSim Manual Description
Experienced players tend to be more consistent from one game to the next, and tend to be more effective in close games.

Skaters
CPHL Rating for Skaters
SUBJECTIVE RATING, LOOSELY TIED TO EXPERIENCE 

Proposed Rating for Skaters
 

Goaltenders

CPHL Rating for Goaltenders
SUBJECTIVE RATING, LOOSELY TIED TO EXPERIENCE 

Proposed Rating for Goaltenders

Thought Process

Edited by cbarnett
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